How to use this calculator
Enter each scenario as name, probability percent, signed net outcome. Compare mode accepts a separate complete distribution for option B.
Formula and method
EV = Σ probability × net outcome. Probability of loss = sum probabilities where net outcome < 0. Expected loss contribution = sum probability × absolute negative outcome.
Worked example
A: 60% chance of 1,000 and 40% chance of −500 gives EV 400 and 40% probability of loss.
Assumptions and supported scope
Probabilities must sum to 100% for each option; up to 20 scenarios per option. Outcomes exclude time value unless already included in the user-entered net amounts. Estimates are assumptions, not forecasts.
Method references
Method and worked example checked against the calculator implementation. About our methods · Report a correction